Nasrallah, Berri, Jumblat Call for Calm

Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah as well as Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Druze leader Walid Jumblat have called for calm.
“Calm … is a national interest under which serious dialogue can be conducted,” Nasrallah said in remarks published by several Beirut dailies on Wednesday.
He warned that the ongoing tense situation would “sabotage dialogue and obstruct the work of the government.”

Druze leader Walid Jumblat, for his part, called for calm, saying “tense situations cannot be dealt with tension.”

Meanwhile, visitors quoted Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri as expressing his commitment to support all national consensus efforts.

How our negotiator played Nasrallah

Virtually no heroes can be found in the affair of the abducted soldiers, except for the noble Regev and Goldwasser families. Surely a cack-handed cabinet that hastened to wage war without pausing to reflect, and a vociferous media with a penchant for exaggerations and sentimental melodrama, are not among these heroes.

But maybe, in addition to the Regevs and the Goldwassers, we can add Ofer Dekel to the list, for his performance as the government’s representative in the negotiations to return the two soldiers’ bodies. He helped make the best out of a difficult situation, and at minimal cost.

Dekel operated within a rigid framework, made up of a government that needed an achievement, and to put an end to this affair; a reckless and impatient media; and the genuine human drama of the missing soldiers’ families’.

Through it, he managed to keep a clear head. He correctly assessed that the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, is not the all-powerful sorcerer he’s made out to be, and that Hezbollah – yes, even the mighty and dreaded Hezbollah – had some constraints that could be exploited.

One constraint stems from the organization’s primary source of power – its status as the only armed militia inside Lebanon.

Its raison d’etre, in all the agreements within Lebanon and in other Arab countries, was resisting Israel’s presence in Lebanon. The Israeli withdrawal in May 2000 stripped it of its legitimacy. How can Hezbollah justify its existence as a militia now?

The pressures to disarm Hezbollah increased with Syria’s pullout from Lebanon in March 2005.

Furthermore, its need to take action against Israel, to justify its military component, produced the July 2006 kidnapping. In staging this attack, as Nasrallah himself admitted in retrospect, Hezbollah did not take into account a massive Israeli reaction.

This means that even the great Nasrallah makes mistakes, despite our commentators’ insistence that he reads us like a book.

The other constraint is that Iran was upset over Hezbollah’s reckless move, as the abduction was construed in Tehran. Furthermore, Iran was displeased with Hezbollah’s use of long-range missiles, which were meant exclusively for a large-scale showdown with Israel.

This is why Iran has forbidden the organization to use the missiles until further notice.

Obviously, the Iranians are not eager to see a second round of hostilities with Israel – certainly not while they are attempting to dampen the international and diplomatic pressure over their uranium enrichment program.

Iran has an interest in presenting itself as a reasonable and responsible regional power.

This all means that despite Hezbollah’s rearmament drive, it does not possess a military option right now. The balance of terror in the north is tipping in the favor of the Israel Defense Forces, as Hezbollah has reason to fear a ferocious Israeli retaliation for its military activities, in the name of a rematch or revenge.

Hezbollah’s need to legitimize itself as an armed militia is becoming more pressing in light of how the March 14 Alliance, a coalition of anti-Syrian political parties and independents in Lebanon, is gaining support.

Hezbollah, which the Christian-Sunni-Druze alliance considers an enemy of Lebanese sovereignty, can justify its existence with nothing more than the pitiful pretext of liberating the Shaba Farms, which Hezbollah’s detractors have ridiculed and belittled.

Another grave error by Nasrallah – May’s forceful takeover of the Sunni quarter in Beirut – increased the need for legitimacy.

The takeover clearly showed that the militia is battling not just the Zionists, but also coreligionists: Lebanese Sunnis. Following the murder of its leader Rafik Hariri, the Lebanese Sunni establishment has become a strong believer in a strong and independent Lebanon.

The newly founded alliance between Christians and Druze has consolidated itself even further, while Sunni Muslim movements outside Lebanon, headed by Egypt’s Muslim brotherhood, strongly rebuked Hezbollah for perpetrating this act – which Sunnis call an act of civil war.

If Hezbollah is sensitive to any sort of media coverage, it is not the coverage by Al Jazeera, with its amorphous and sentimental viewership.

Hezbollah cares about winning supporters from fanatical sister sects and Muslim organizations. This is especially true now that the Sunni-Shi’ite gulf is widening from its rupture point in Iraq.

The conclusion is that Hezbollah is in grave need of an achievement that would help it legitimize its existence as a militia.

Dekel apparently comprehended this, as well as Hezbollah’s poor bargaining chips.

After all, the Israeli team negotiated under the near-certain assumption that the two MIAs were dead. Dekel understood the weaknesses of an organization that many perceive to be omnipotent, and this is why he was able to run a truly praiseworthy negotiation process.

Jumblatt says surrender of Hizbullah’s weapons to army is ‘inevitable’

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Jumblatt says surrender of Hizbullah’s weapons to army is ‘inevitable’

Psp leader argues state of ‘open war’ already exists in Lebanon

By Maher Zeineddine and Nafez Qawas Daily Star correspondent

BEIRUT: Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader MP Walid Jumblatt said on Monday that reaching a comprehensive national defense strategy where arms are to be put under the Lebanese Armed Forces’ control is “inevitable.” In his weekly remarks to PSP’s mouthpiece, Al-Anbaa, to be published on Tuesday, Jumblatt said “there is not any country in the world that accepts to have undisciplined armed factions that open wars with enemies whenever they want and however they want, as if they are the only ones to run the country’s affairs.” Jumblatt’s remarks came in reference to Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s warning that if the recent assassination if top resistance commander Imad Mughniyeh meant Israel wanted “open war,” his group was ready. “We have liberated our land, defeated the Israelis more than once and fulfilled our national duty as good as it can be,” Jumblatt said. “We do not want to get involved in international terrorist or non-terrorist wars that could drag us to never ending conflicts on our territory.” “An open war can be averted through a defense strategy and through the handing over of the alive [Israeli soldiers] or the body parts to the legitimate authority in order to negotiate this file with the United Nations,” he added. Jumblatt said the Lebanese cannot accept that a certain party “avenges its martyrs in an open war that is to be launched from their country.” “Aren’t the prices which the Lebanese have paid so far to settle the bills of regional regimes enough?” he asked. According to Jumblatt, open wars already exist inside Lebanon through “emptying” institutions, paralyzing political life and occupying downtown Beirut, a reference to the sit-in held there by the opposition there since December 2006. Following a meeting with Prime Minister Fouad Siniora on Sunday, Jumblatt criticized the “change” in Nasrallah’s latest two speeches. “There is something remarkable between Nasrallah’s speech delivered during Mughniyeh’s funeral and the latest one,” he said. “We were in an open war and now Israel is declaring an open war.” Nasrallah delivered a speech by video link to thousands of supporters taking part in a ceremony to commemorate fallen Hizbullah members on Friday. He said the “resistance will not stand silent” if Israel launches a war against Lebanon. “We will kill you in the fields, we will kill you in the cities, we will fight you like you have never seen before,” said Nasrallah. “Israel will be left without an army, and without an army Israel cannot exist.” Earlier this month, Nasrallah delivered another tough speech during the funeral for Mughniyeh – who was killed by a car bomb in Damascus . “There is a change between one week and another, is this change tactical? Is there anything inside their organization?” Jumbatt asked. “It is true that an open war exists but when we strengthen the state we eliminate Israel’s pretext of an open war,” he added.

Geagea challenges Nasrallah to a TV debate

Beirut- Lebanese Forces leader Dr. Samir Geagea, in a swift reaction on Friday, told Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah “you have no right to take us against our will to where we don’t want to go” and challenged him to accept a TV debate

to allow “the Lebanese, the Arabs and the whole world judge” us.

Geagea was reacting to Nasrallah‘s insistence that he has the right to set the time and place of war by proclaiming it our “national right.”

Nasrallah, in an address to a rally commemorating Hezbollah’s Imad Mughniyeh a few hours earlier, had attacked the international tribunal saying its prosecutor is in Meerab, in reference to Geagea’s residence northeast of Beirut.

Geagea responded by addressing Nasrallah: “The prosecutor of the international tribunal remains better than your Addoum,” in reference to ex-prosecutor general Adnan Addoum who held the post prior to withdrawal of Syria’s Army from Lebanon in April 2005.

Addresing Nasrallah, Geagea said: “Remember the downfall of the whole Soviet Union and look at the developments in Palestine, so far. We are against this logic and you have no right, Sayyed, to take us against our will to where we don’t want to go.”

Sources: Naharnet, Ya Libnan