Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain have called on their citizens to avoid most travel to Lebanon because of growing tensions in the Levant that, presumably, sits on a new powder keg.
As Syria scrambles to save its League of Arab States (LAS) Summit, the number two Hezbollah official, Emad Mughnieh, was gunned down in Damascus.
Ironically, his funeral was scheduled to coincide with the Freedom Square demonstration to commemorate the third assassination anniversary of former prime minister Rafik Hariri on February 14.
Excitable protagonists are now competing in protest marches, each attempting to outdo the other, adding fuel to smoldering fires. As if these were not sufficient, opposition strongman Hassan Nasrallah delivered another of his fiery speeches, in which he anticipated the destruction of Israel.
Not surprisingly, these developments renew the overall sense of gloom and doom, which were further compounded after LAS Secretary-General Amr Mousa engaged in yet another discussion cycle, without any breakthroughs.
More than ever, Arab commentators are confused, some anticipating war. Even seasoned leaders seem powerless, most unable to break away from carefully tailored roadblocks, which grow each day.
Everyone anticipates a conflagration that will engulf more than Lebanon. Although the mood is pessimistic, Lebanon is still one of the happiest places on earth, and the Lebanese, eternally confronted with challenges larger that their tiny land, continue to display an unparalleled joie de vivre that is the envy of the world.
Under the circumstances, it is fair to ask, what will really happen next?
First, a word about the presidential elections, which were postponed once again by Speaker Nabih Berri – for the 15th time – and which no longer have any meaning. These routine delays are no more than stale tactics, likely to be repeated several more times.
In the end, there are simply no alternatives to Army Commander General Michel Sulaiman, who will eventually become president. Otherwise, and wishful thinking aside, Lebanon will not have a Head of State because no other candidate can muster the necessary broad support that is required to win the presidency.
Second, without a president, it is the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora that protects, promotes and defends the country’s interests. Siniora may be the butt of derision but he is rock solid.
His professional tenure will continue for as long as needed: one, five, or even ten years. In fact, the competent Siniora is the ultimate nationalist, who seems to place the welfare of his nation-state above all else. As such, he represents the epitome of legitimacy, no matter how much abuse is lobbed towards him.
Speaking up
Third, many of Lebanon’s religious leaders have thrown their hats into the fray, and are speaking up against naive propositions. Their recent call on excitable young Lebanese to assume responsibilities was long overdue but critical nevertheless.
Fourth, Syria is poised to discover that its hold on Lebanon will never be accepted because the two countries, which had a lot in common before independence, now share little. The two peoples even less.
Moreover, Damascus cannot fight its myriad intra-Arab disputes in Lebanon, but must resolve them separately with distant competitors. If Riyadh and Damascus disagree on an issue, for example, then a way must be found to address those concerns bilaterally, not on the back of the Lebanese.
Finally, there is Iran, a country that has a long memory and that seeks regional and international respect, especially from neighbouring Arab states.
Tehran must tread these waters with existential care because western powers, that will defend their interests no matter what, cannot be kowtowed.
Again, Lebanon can no longer afford to remain an arena of Iranian-Arab quarrels, and it is up to Hezbollah, Iran’s primary ally in the Arab world, to affirm its separate identity. That characteristic must underscore its legitimate Lebanese motto if the party wishes to co-exist peacefully with equally determined partners.
What are the consequences of these concerns if no accords are formulated?
It should be clear that there will be no war in Lebanon, or in the region, because the result of such a confrontation will be the division of the country. Like the Koreas, there will be a North Lebanon and a South Lebanon (to which the Beka’a Valley may or may not be attached depending on Syria).
The North will quickly transform itself into a rival for Monte Carlo, while the South will fall under Israeli and/or Syrian suzerainty, and it is precisely to avoid this scenario that no Lebanese leader will seriously contemplate war.
A civil war will translate in a major loss for Hezbollah because, unlike its 2006 battles with Israel, when virtually everyone – including most Christians – stood by it, the party will draw the wrath of the entire world.
Since this analysis excludes a war, one hopes that foreign ministry mandarins in various Arab capitals will rescind their premature recommendations asking citizens not to travel to Lebanon.
On the contrary, they should call for the opposite, because this is the time for all to stand with their brethren. To prevail with legality and justice, sustain a universally recognised government, and stand up against criminality.
Arabs should fill every single flight into Beirut and partake in the joie de vivre that enriches beyond hope. That’s the dare.
Dr Joseph A. Kechichian is a commentator and author of several books on Gulf affairs.
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