How our negotiator played Nasrallah

Virtually no heroes can be found in the affair of the abducted soldiers, except for the noble Regev and Goldwasser families. Surely a cack-handed cabinet that hastened to wage war without pausing to reflect, and a vociferous media with a penchant for exaggerations and sentimental melodrama, are not among these heroes.

But maybe, in addition to the Regevs and the Goldwassers, we can add Ofer Dekel to the list, for his performance as the government’s representative in the negotiations to return the two soldiers’ bodies. He helped make the best out of a difficult situation, and at minimal cost.

Dekel operated within a rigid framework, made up of a government that needed an achievement, and to put an end to this affair; a reckless and impatient media; and the genuine human drama of the missing soldiers’ families’.

Through it, he managed to keep a clear head. He correctly assessed that the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, is not the all-powerful sorcerer he’s made out to be, and that Hezbollah – yes, even the mighty and dreaded Hezbollah – had some constraints that could be exploited.

One constraint stems from the organization’s primary source of power – its status as the only armed militia inside Lebanon.

Its raison d’etre, in all the agreements within Lebanon and in other Arab countries, was resisting Israel’s presence in Lebanon. The Israeli withdrawal in May 2000 stripped it of its legitimacy. How can Hezbollah justify its existence as a militia now?

The pressures to disarm Hezbollah increased with Syria’s pullout from Lebanon in March 2005.

Furthermore, its need to take action against Israel, to justify its military component, produced the July 2006 kidnapping. In staging this attack, as Nasrallah himself admitted in retrospect, Hezbollah did not take into account a massive Israeli reaction.

This means that even the great Nasrallah makes mistakes, despite our commentators’ insistence that he reads us like a book.

The other constraint is that Iran was upset over Hezbollah’s reckless move, as the abduction was construed in Tehran. Furthermore, Iran was displeased with Hezbollah’s use of long-range missiles, which were meant exclusively for a large-scale showdown with Israel.

This is why Iran has forbidden the organization to use the missiles until further notice.

Obviously, the Iranians are not eager to see a second round of hostilities with Israel – certainly not while they are attempting to dampen the international and diplomatic pressure over their uranium enrichment program.

Iran has an interest in presenting itself as a reasonable and responsible regional power.

This all means that despite Hezbollah’s rearmament drive, it does not possess a military option right now. The balance of terror in the north is tipping in the favor of the Israel Defense Forces, as Hezbollah has reason to fear a ferocious Israeli retaliation for its military activities, in the name of a rematch or revenge.

Hezbollah’s need to legitimize itself as an armed militia is becoming more pressing in light of how the March 14 Alliance, a coalition of anti-Syrian political parties and independents in Lebanon, is gaining support.

Hezbollah, which the Christian-Sunni-Druze alliance considers an enemy of Lebanese sovereignty, can justify its existence with nothing more than the pitiful pretext of liberating the Shaba Farms, which Hezbollah’s detractors have ridiculed and belittled.

Another grave error by Nasrallah – May’s forceful takeover of the Sunni quarter in Beirut – increased the need for legitimacy.

The takeover clearly showed that the militia is battling not just the Zionists, but also coreligionists: Lebanese Sunnis. Following the murder of its leader Rafik Hariri, the Lebanese Sunni establishment has become a strong believer in a strong and independent Lebanon.

The newly founded alliance between Christians and Druze has consolidated itself even further, while Sunni Muslim movements outside Lebanon, headed by Egypt’s Muslim brotherhood, strongly rebuked Hezbollah for perpetrating this act – which Sunnis call an act of civil war.

If Hezbollah is sensitive to any sort of media coverage, it is not the coverage by Al Jazeera, with its amorphous and sentimental viewership.

Hezbollah cares about winning supporters from fanatical sister sects and Muslim organizations. This is especially true now that the Sunni-Shi’ite gulf is widening from its rupture point in Iraq.

The conclusion is that Hezbollah is in grave need of an achievement that would help it legitimize its existence as a militia.

Dekel apparently comprehended this, as well as Hezbollah’s poor bargaining chips.

After all, the Israeli team negotiated under the near-certain assumption that the two MIAs were dead. Dekel understood the weaknesses of an organization that many perceive to be omnipotent, and this is why he was able to run a truly praiseworthy negotiation process.

West welcomes Syrian accord with Lebanon

Britain, Germany and the US have welcomed a decision by Lebanon and Syria to open diplomatic relations, but the US Government urged its Syrian counterpart to end its ”destabilising tactics” in the region.

State Department spokesman Rob McInturff said, ”We continue to support the establishment of good relations between Lebanon and Syria on the basis of mutual respect.

”We join with France in reiterating the commitment to a sovereign and independent Lebanon.”

But he added that the US would ”continue to limit our diplomatic engagement unless Syria takes concrete actions to end its destabilising tactics in the region”.

Lebanon and Syria said earlier they had agreed to establish diplomatic relations, opening embassies in each other’s capitals for the first time since their independence from colonial rule.

The State Department said Syria was ”showing it is eager to engage with the international community”.

Mr McInturff said the United States and other Lebanon watchers were ”waiting for a signal that the Syrians are ready to renounce their sponsorship of terrorism, to do more to end the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq, to expel the leadership of Palestinian terrorist groups and to end human rights violations”.

The US continues to blacklist Syria as a state sponsor of terrorism.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy announced the landmark decision in Paris after talks with Syrian and Lebanese counterparts Bashar al-Assad and Michel Suleiman.

Mr Suleiman’s election in May ended a drawn-out political crisis in Lebanon.

The two Middle East leaders confirmed the news at a joint press conference later in the day.

Lebanon announced a 30-member national unity government on Friday charged with resolving the country’s worst political crisis since the 1975-90 civil war.

Syria, the former powerbroker in Lebanon, withdrew its troops in 2005 after the assassination of then Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri, ending a military presence of nearly three decades.

Syria was widely blamed for the killing but denies involvement.

In London, a British Foreign Office spokeswoman said, ”If it means that Syria is going to play a more constructive role in the region, that can only be a good thing.”

Foreign Secretary David Miliband welcomed the formation of the national unity government in Lebanon, saying it was a ”vital step forward” towards the implementation of the Doha agreement struck in May.

Praising the Lebanese Prime Minister and President, he said they and the country had Britain’s ”full support in tackling the important political, security and economic challenges that lie ahead”.

Germany’s European Affairs Minister, Guenter Gloser, welcomed the countries’ decision to establish ties as ”considerable progress”. AFP